美联储降息专题 | 降息风暴下的黄金盛宴：历史数据揭秘金价未来
美联储降息专题 | 降息风暴下的黄金盛宴：历史数据揭秘金价未来
9月开启的美联储降息既给全球经济带来了机遇，也注入了更多的不确定性。本期专题讨论美元降息周期下的世界经济走向。本篇报道邀请各位读者从数据出发，回顾历史降息周期，解读降息与金价之间的复杂关系。
9月19日，美联储宣布下调联邦基金利率，国际金价应声上涨。自9月美联储降息以来，金价不断攀升，屡次打破历史创下新高。截至10月30日，金价已涨至2777.8美元/盎司，超过历史最高水平。
Gold, as a safe-haven asset, its future price trend has always been the focus of attention. Is this glory of gold a flash in the pan or the prelude to a new chapter? Through multi-dimensional analysis of historical data in this article, the potential laws of the gold price trend are revealed. The results of data analysis show that the gold price has shown an upward trend in the short term after each interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reflecting the positive impact of the Fed's loose monetary policy on the gold market. In the long term, the factors affecting the gold price are very complex, including geopolitics, supply and demand relations, etc.
复盘历史上美联储降息的金价表现
作为资金价格的风向标，政策利率的高低对资产的涨跌起着关键作用。
Historically, as a non-yielding asset, gold tends to follow a common reaction pattern when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Specifically, during periods of economic uncertainty, particularly when interest rates fall and investors seek safe-haven assets, gold often performs well.
短期看，与美元流动性增强相伴随的是黄金价格先涨后降；中期看，美元流动性增强会显著支撑黄金价格上涨；长期看，美元流动性增强对黄金价格上涨的支撑效应呈不断下降态势，黄金的长期表现还需考量其他因素。
降息预期波动，黄金市场多空交织
9月的美联储降息与新世纪以来前几轮降息大有不同，此次降息并非源于外部冲击，而是基于宏观经济情况的内部周期性调整，是一种回归常态型的降息，即降息调整后，美国经济的宏观表现将会直观影响到后续美联储的降息计划。
Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, emphasized that the U.S. economy and employment are fundamentally healthy and stated that the Federal Reserve is "realigning" key interest rates rather than conducting rapid rate cuts as in emergency situations.
10月4日，数据显示，美国9月非农就业人口增加了25.4万人，远超预期的15万人，失业率回落至4.1%。新美联储通讯社表示，9月非农报告可能关闭美联储11月降息50基点的大门。但花旗认为，9月非农数据可能受到季节性调整的影响，未来就业数据将出现更急剧的向下修正，这将导致美联储在11月降息25个基点，然后在12月重回降息50个基点行列。
Currently, there is a considerable divergence in rate-cut expectations among major financial institutions, and further data will be required to support existing views. What can be observed is that the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate-cutting policies will be crucial for gold prices. The current trend remains mixed.
央行持续购金，金价持续看涨
黄金作为一种贵金属，也是一种实物商品，其价格受到黄金供需的强弱影响。其中，央行购金行为对金价的影响相对较大。
The net gold purchases by global central banks play a crucial role in supporting the trend of gold prices. The data suggest that central banks are adding to their gold reserves despite record prices, partly driving the rally. World Gold Council analyst Paul Gopaul attributed this to gold's role as a store of value and its performance during the crisis. He concluded, “The continued trend in sovereign gold accumulation underscores the continued confidence in gold's role in a portfolio.”
2010年Q1-2024年Q2 黄金价格与全球央行购金的走势
地缘冲突刺激避险情绪
Looking back at multiple geopolitical frictions since 2000, we find that most localized political and economic conflicts tend to trigger strong safe-haven demand among investors, boosting gold demand and leading to an impulsive rise in gold prices.
9月10日-10月30日 黄金的价格走势图（单位：美元/盎司）
Following the Fed's interest rate cut, gold held its short-term key support level and continued its bullish trend. However, with escalating tensions in the Middle East and the U.S. election entering a decisive phase, international risk aversion has risen, causing gold prices to surge to $2,777.80 per ounce on October 30.
HuaAn Funds believes that with the start of the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction cycle, the market expects a downward trend in US real interest rates, which is usually beneficial for gold performance. Also, Under the influence of multiple factors such as the global "de-dollarization" trend and the volatile geopolitical environment, gold still has an important allocation value at present. Investors still need to closely monitor the subsequent policy trends of the Federal Reserve as well as global economic data and the political environment, and be vigilant of the volatility risks in the gold market.
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