巴菲特推荐的指数基金：以史为鉴，看指数基金的长期投资优势

巴菲特推荐的指数基金：以史为鉴，看指数基金的长期投资优势

导读：本文深入探讨了巴菲特推荐的指数基金，特别是先锋集团的标普500ETF（VOO）。通过分析Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund的投资策略、费用结构及其相对于其他基金的优势，结合巴菲特的实际案例和数据，为投资者提供了有价值的参考。

巴菲特在信息披露方面异常谨慎，不作某只股份的投资建议，唯一例外是建议普通投资者购买指数基金，并且在和基金公司的赌约中详细披露了自己的持仓，那就是先锋集团的标普500ETF（VOO）。详细资料读者可以阅读以前的若干专辑：

伯克希尔万亿美元之路（157）巴菲特百万美元赌约（5）对手是基金中的基金

Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund是由美国先锋基金公司（Vanguard）管理的一种投资基金，旨在追踪标准普尔500指数的表现。该基金旨在反映美国500家最大的上市公司表现，通过投资于这些公司的股票，提供与该指数相似的回报。

Vanguard以其较低的管理费用闻名，截至 2024 年为 0.03%，这意味着您每投资 1,000 美元，每年需支付 0.30 美元。相比股票ETF 平均费用率为 0.15%，指数债券 ETF 的平均 ETF 费用率为 0.11%，先锋基金无疑具有很大优势。目前国内公募基金市场中，被动指数基金平均管理费率为0.49%，平均托管费率为0.1%。

最近一年标普500ETF-Vanguard(VOO)收益是25.02%，这么高的收益率让人无法想象只是跟踪指数，被动投资赢了大多数主动投资。笔者无意让大家买这只基金，这是举例说明跟踪指数是很好躺赢的方法。

巴菲特在历年财报上推荐先锋指数基金如下：

2002：

不幸的是，某些大型投资机构在其他地方争取更好的治理时，存在“玻璃屋”问题；例如，他们一想到自己的业绩和费用受到董事会的严格审查，就会不寒而栗。但先锋集团的杰克·博格、戴维斯顾问公司的克里斯·戴维斯和莱格·梅森的比尔·米勒现在正在发挥领导作用，让首席执行官们妥善对待他们的所有者。如果养老基金和其他受托人支持这些人，他们将来将获得更好的投资回报。

Unfortunately, certain major investing institutions have “glass house” problems in arguing for better governance elsewhere; they would shudder, for example, at the thought of their own performance and fees being closely inspected by their own boards. But Jack Bogle of Vanguard fame, Chris Davis of Davis Advisors, and Bill Miller of Legg Mason are now offering leadership in getting CEOs to treat their owners properly. Pension funds, as well as other fiduciaries, will reap better investment returns in the future if they support these men.

2003：

最后，免责声明。尽管存在不法行为，但许多基金都运行良好且尽职尽责。这些基金的股东受益匪浅，基金经理也赚得盆满钵满。事实上，如果我是某些基金的董事，包括一些收取高于平均水平费用的基金，我会热情地做出我建议的两项声明。此外，那些成本非常低的指数基金（如先锋基金）从定义上讲对投资者友好，是大多数希望持有股票的人的最佳选择。

Finally, a disclaimer. A great many funds have been run well and conscientiously despite the opportunities for malfeasance that exist. The shareholders of these funds have benefited, and their managers have earned their pay. Indeed, if I were a director of certain funds, including some that charge above-average fees, I would enthusiastically make the two declarations I have suggested. Additionally, those index funds that are very low-cost (such as Vanguard’s) are investor-friendly by definition and are the best selection for most of those who wish to own equities.

2013：

我应该补充一点，我的钱就是我的口号：我在这里的建议与我在遗嘱中列出的某些指示基本相同。一项遗赠规定，将现金交付给受托人，以造福我的妻子。（我必须使用现金进行个人遗赠，因为我的所有伯克希尔股份将在我的遗产结束后的十年内全部分配给某些慈善组织。）我给受托人的建议再简单不过了：将 10% 的现金投入短期政府债券，将 90% 投入成本极低的标准普尔 500 指数基金。（我建议先锋基金。）我相信，该信托从这项政策中获得的长期收益将优于大多数投资者（无论是养老基金、机构还是个人）雇用高费用经理所获得的结果

My money, I should add, is where my mouth is: What I advise here is essentially identical to certain instructions I’ve laid out in my will. One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife’s benefit. (I have to use cash for individual bequests, because all of my Berkshire shares will be fully distributed to certain philanthropic organizations over the ten years following the closing of my estate.) My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers.

2016:

随后，我公开提出以 50 万美元打赌，说没有一位投资专家能够挑选出至少五只对冲基金（广受欢迎且收费高昂的投资工具），在较长时期内，这些对冲基金的表现能够与只收取象征性费用的无管理标准普尔 500 指数基金相媲美。我建议下注十年，并将低成本的先锋标准普尔基金列为我的竞争对手。然后，我坐下来，满怀期待地等待着一群基金经理（他们可能会将自己的基金列为五只基金之一）站出来捍卫自己的职业。毕竟，这些经理鼓励其他人将数十亿美元押注于他们的能力。他们为什么要害怕将自己的一点钱投入其中呢？接下来是一片寂静。尽管有成千上万的专业投资经理通过吹嘘自己的选股能力积累了惊人的财富，但只有一个人——泰德·赛德斯——接受了我的挑战。泰德是 Protégé Partners 的联合经理，Protégé Partners 是一家资产管理公司，从有限合伙人那里筹集资金，组建了一只基金中的基金，换句话说，就是一只投资于多家对冲基金的基金。

在我们下注之前，我并不认识泰德，但我喜欢他，钦佩他言出必行的决心。他对我直言不讳，并一丝不苟地提供他和我监控赌注所需的所有数据。

对于我们十年赌注的 Protégé Partners 一方，泰德选择了五只基金中的基金，它们的业绩将被平均，并与我的先锋标准普尔指数基金进行比较。他选择的五只基金将资金投资于 100 多家对冲基金，这意味着基金中的基金的整体表现不会因单个经理的业绩好坏而扭曲。

Subsequently, I publicly offered to wager $500,000 that no investment pro could select a set of at least five hedge funds – wildly-popular and high-fee investing vehicles – that would over an extended period match the performance of an unmanaged S&P-500 index fund charging only token fees. I suggested a ten-year bet and named a low-cost Vanguard S&P fund as my contender. I then sat back and waited expectantly for a parade of fund managers – who could include their own fund as one of the five – to come forth and defend their occupation. After all, these managers urged others to bet billions on their abilities. Why should they fear putting a little of their own money on the line? What followed was the sound of silence. Though there are thousands ofprofessionalinvestment managers who have amassed staggering fortunes by touting their stock-selecting prowess, only one man – Ted Seides – stepped up to my challenge. Ted was a co-manager of Protégé Partners, an asset manager that had raised money from limited partners to form a fund-of-funds – in other words, a fund that invests in multiple hedge funds. I hadn’t known Ted before our wager, but I like him and admire his willingness to put his money where his mouth was. He has been both straight-forward with me and meticulous in supplying all the data that both he and I have needed to monitor the bet. For Protégé Partners’ side of our ten-year bet, Ted picked five funds-of-funds whose results were to be averaged and compared against my Vanguard S&P index fund. The five he selected had invested their money in more than 100 hedge funds, which meant that the overall performance of the funds-of-funds would not be distorted by the good or poor results of a single manager.

巴菲特在投资后与赌约中5只基金业绩比较：

在赌约到期之前一年（2016年底），巴菲特在确认获胜在望时才公开了双方的业绩，指数基金的年复合增长率为 7.1%（9年），这一回报率很容易证明是股市长期的典型回报率。这是一个重要的事实：在这场赌注的整个过程中，市场特别疲软的九年可能有助于对冲基金的相对表现，因为许多对冲基金持有大量“空头”头寸。相反，九年来股票的异常高回报率将为指数基金提供顺风。相反，对赌期间主要在所谓的“中性”环境中运营。在这种环境中，五只基金截止2016 年底的平均年复合增长率仅为 2.2%。这意味着在这些基金中投资100 万美元将获得 220,000 美元的收益。与此同时，指数基金将获得 854,000 美元的收益。

2024您的投资战胜指数了吗？是否转变一下投资思想呢，比较一下若干年来自己的业绩和指数变化，孰优孰劣显而易见，这不禁让我想起了意大利最著名的守门员佐夫，在1982年西班牙世界杯上，40岁时佐夫带领意大利队赢得了冠军，成为世界杯有史以来最年长的冠军，看起来无趣的防守正是赢球的关键，投资的道理也是如此。